Arvind Kejriwal's AAP fades as 'INDIA' shines (2024)

When Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate in the alleged excise policy scam on March 21, it sparked a wave of unifying condemnation across the ranks and file of India's Opposition parties banded together as 'INDIA' bloc to deny PM Modi a third term in power.

Ten days later, on March 31, 2024 — to purportedly 'save democracy' — the Opposition did a show of unity at Delhi's historic Ramlila Maidan, the same venue where over a decade ago, Kejriwal under the leadership of social activist Anna Hazare, had led an anti-corruption campaign against the then-ruling United Progressive Alliance government led by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.

Former Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren's spouse Kalpana Soren, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal's spouse Sunita Kejriwal alongside top Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi at Delhi's Ramlila Maidan during opposition 'INDIA' bloc's 'Save Democracy' rally on March 31, 2024 | ANI

With Congress-led United Progressive Alliance of 2013 morphed into Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance ('INDIA') by 2024, in Ramlila Maidan,Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party stood with its avowed political foes ofyesteryears.

With speaking time allotted to all Opposition leaders, Arvind Kejriwal's spouse Sunita also delivered an address. So did former Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren's spouse Kalpana Soren.

The wave of unity sparked by Kejriwal's arrest as a show of alleged high-handedness of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government resonated across the Opposition parties all over India.

Over six weeks later (on May 10), as Arvind Kejriwal came out of Delhi's Tihar jail after a Supreme Court verdict that allowed him to campaign in elections until June 2, 2024, it cameas relieving surprise to the Opposition.

Upon his release, Kejriwal launched Opposition's strongest-ever election-time assault on Prime Minister Modi. The Delhi chief minister claimed that if re-elected, Modi will remain prime minister just for a year — as he will turn 75 in September 2026 and Modi in past is credited to have ensured that leaders beyond 75 years of age no longer get elected designations of power. Kejriwal added that after Modi turns 75, Union Home Minister Amit Shah will be allowed to remainPM for the rest of the tenure of the 18th Lok Sabha.

Kejriwal's claim immediately put the BJP on defensive as it ended up showing off PM Modi as BJP's leader in control even "after 2029".

Aam Aadmi Party's performance in Lok Sabha Elections 2024

Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party lost all seven Lok Sabha seats of Delhi, where his party is in power for over a decade. In Punjab, the AAP won just two seats with Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann concedingdefeat of the party, stating that the AAP accepts people's verdict with grace.

But in Punjab, the contradictions within the Opposition's 'INDIA' bloc hurt the AAP. Of the seven seats won by the Congress party, it defeatedAAP candidates across four constituencies in one-on-one contests; in Fatehgarh Sahib, Firozpur, Patiala and Amritsar.

In terms of seats in Lok Sabha, India's lower house of parliament directly elected by people, the AAP has done better in the past. In their first Lok Sabha election in 2014, they won four seats, all in Punjab. In 2019, the tally came down to one. Despite sweeping Delhi assembly with 67 and 62 of 70 seats in last two elections, the party has failed to open its account in Lok Sabha constituencies ofthe national capital so far.

But the silver-lining for India's latest national political party camein terms of the vote share.

But its partner in Delhi ate up its tangible vote share about 400 km north in Punjab where the two parties contested against each other, with the BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal players making it a four-side contest. AAP received a little over 26 per cent vote share, down from its 42 per cent share in 2022 assembly elections when it swept the state by winning 92 of 117 seats.

Arvind Kejriwal returned to Delhi's Tihar jail on June 2. In the Opposition 'INDIA' bloc's meetings for potential government formation or posing a challenge to the majority-claiming ruling National Democratic Alliance, his party would be represented by his lieutenants.

While his return from prison turbocharged a divided Opposition to move towards unity, the implications of his absence in 'INDIA' bloc meetingsremainuncertain.