How Christian McCaffrey's new deal affects contract dispute between Saints, Alvin Kamara (2024)

The New Orleans Saints, like several teams around the NFL, have tried to replicate what the San Francisco 49ers have done.

Now, running back Alvin Kamara might want them to take it a step further.

San Francisco’s recent extension of Christian McCaffrey was a bold choice, a deal that rewarded the All-Pro running back with a two-year, $38 million contract but also set a clear reference point for Kamara and his camp as they look to negotiate a new deal with the Saints after the 28-year-old walked out of mandatory minicamp last week.

It is not known publicly what Kamara is seeking in terms of a new contract, but he is in search of a deal since he’s effectively set to enter the last year of his contract. Though Kamara is on the books until 2025, his $22 million base salary for that season is not guaranteed, and his $29.7 million cap hit is so large that it’s unrealistic the Saints would keep him at that number.

Enter McCaffrey and the 49ers.

Like Kamara, McCaffrey was under contract through 2025. But earlier this month, the two sides added two more years to the deal, giving him a $4 million raise to his compensation in 2024 and 2025 and guaranteeing him $24 million.

Beyond the implications for Kamara, the agreement was significant in that it went against convention of how teams typically avoid paying big money to running backs approaching 30, the age players at the position often start to decline. Brad Spielberger, director of Football Administration at Grand Central Sports Management, tweeted McCaffrey’s extension “legitimizes a third contract for a late 20s RB.”

Kamara turns 29 next month.

The Saints and Kamara have also used a McCaffrey contract as a framework before. In 2020, the Carolina Panthers gave McCaffrey a four-year, $64 million deal before Kamara and the Saints reached an agreement on a five-year, $75 million contract months later. Like now, Kamara’s contract situation was not without drama: The running back skipped a portion of training camp before the agreement was reached.

But the situations between the two backs are much different now — and that alone could make it more difficult to come to an agreement, especially if Kamara is seeking a deal like the one McCaffrey just signed.

“(Kamara’s) production has slipped the past couple of seasons,” said J.I. Halsell, a salary cap expert and NFLPA-certified agent who used to work for the Washington Commanders. “When we talk about stars aligning (for a new deal), the fact there’s a new offensive scheme there ... there’s a certain level of uncertainty in terms of, ‘OK, his production has slipped in the previous offense, and we don’t know what his level of production will be in this new offense.'

“Those two things alone don’t exactly add up to making an extended financial commitment to a player.”

The 49ers had no qualms paying McCaffrey given he led the league in rushing yards and total yards last season. In fact, the 28-year-old has been healthier and more productive since Carolina traded him to San Francisco in 2022. The 49ers, too, are coming off back-to-back years with deep playoff runs, including last season’s Super Bowl appearance.

Kamara hasn’t created the same impact. Even after missing three games because of his suspension last year, Kamara’s 4.5 yards per touch were a career low, and his rush yards over expected were among the worst in the league.

The Saints believed part of Kamara’s struggles were the result of a shaky offensive line and that he will benefit from offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, a former 49ers assistant who is bringing a similar scheme to New Orleans.

But perhaps just as telling, the team notably did not restructure Kamara’s contract this offseason when doing its annual salary cap gymnastics to get cap compliant. This preserved New Orleans’ flexibility to cut Kamara next offseason to save nearly $19 million.

Halsell suggested a middle ground could be reached between the two sides that doesn’t pay Kamara as much as McCaffrey but uses a similar approach by improving Kamara’s cash flow in the short term, lowering his cap hit, guaranteeing a portion of next year’s salary and/or tacking more years onto the deal.

Around the league, other running backs in their late 20s and early 30s have managed to sign smaller, multi-year contracts. This year alone, the Baltimore Ravens signed Derrick Henry (30) to a two-year, $16 million deal, while the Houston Texans acquired Joe Mixon (28) from the Cincinnati Bengals and gave him a new three-year, $19.7 million contract.

The Saints, of course, aren’t obligated to touch Kamara’s contract at all. If Kamara holds out in training camp, they can fine him for missing practices.

“If you’re the Saints, and you’re looking at just the offensive side of the ball, is there really anybody there you feel really committed to long term?" Halsell said.