Survey says: Giants fans undecided about Gabe Kapler, still love Barry Bonds (2024)

We are living in the age of Big Data Baseball.

Teams are equipped with more information than ever. Front offices have analytics in every flavor to evaluate their own players. Scouting reports are so granular they could slip through the neck of an hourglass. Organizations can crunch numbers in myriad ways to understand tendencies, recognize patterns and be ready for what’s probably coming next.

But it is easy to forget that the team you know as the San Francisco Giants is really San Francisco Baseball Associates LLC and, like any corporation, it caters to clients and consumers. It is vital that the Giants know what those consumers want, understand their tendencies, recognize patterns and be ready for what’s probably coming next.

Major-league marketing departments were heavy into analytics long before baseball operations got wise.

With baseball on pause amid a pandemic, there are no on-field statistics to evaluate. So The Athletic thought it might be a good time to generate our own. The Giants have reams of marketing data to help them understand their customers. Thanks to almost 1,400 of you, we have our own little slice of information about Giants fans to understand the gradient of current attitudes and opinions. Many of the responses were predictable. But not all!

Giants fans have not lost affection for Barry Bonds. They want to see how the new ballpark dimensions play before they form an opinion, but on the whole, they’re open to it. They’re confident in the ownership and front office, but skeptical when it comes to manager Gabe Kapler. Overall, they feel they’ve been treated well by the Giants organization. They’re even willing to forgive the exodus of Madison Bumgarner.

Mostly they are, in a word, hopeful.

On to the results:

Let’s get this out of the way: This poll is going to suffer from selection effect. Based on the responses to the first question, it appears that most respondents are in their 30s or 40s. And Gen Z is barely represented. Fewer than 10 percent of respondents said that they became a Giants fan after 2010. We have this concept of nouveau fans who hopped aboard a parade float and never let go of their sense of entitlement. But if they exist, they aren’t accounted for here. And as you’ll see from many of the results, that will become pretty obvious. Also, a shout out to the very few fans who still carry their loyalties from the Polo Grounds. From the top of Coogan’s Bluff, I salute you.

Admittedly, the wording is a little vague here. Confident this team will contend? Confident this team will be worth watching? Confident that the Giants will make progress in their rebuilding effort? As you’ll see when we get to Question 6, respondents aren’t too confident in the talent level of the club. Yet they tend to cluster a bit nearer to the middle here, with a majority (53.1 percent) choosing in the 4 to 6 range. So perhaps these results, while not reflecting wild optimism, are notable in their lack of dire, short-term pessimism.

Again, there’s selection bias to consider. If we polled 1,400 KNBR listeners, the range of responses probably would have taken on a different shape. But among readers of The Athletic, at least, there is a strong current of confidence that Farhan Zaidi is the right person to lead the Giants baseball operations group right now with more than half (55.2 percent) of respondents answering with an 8 or above. That’s notable because it hasn’t been all puppies and rainbows in one full year under Zaidi. There was the 2019 opening-day disaster of an outfield with Connor Joe and Michael Reed, the decision to non-tender Kevin Pillar, the hiring of Kapler and the sight of Bumgarner putting on an Arizona Diamondbacks hat. And for all the incremental progress Zaidi has made, you can’t point to any broad, franchise-altering strokes yet on the major-league roster. A larger swath of Giants fandom might be more skeptical, but these results indicate that our readers tend to understand the problems that Zaidi inherited and have the patience to see this construction project through.

More positives flowing here, with only 9.2 percent of respondents grading the Giants executive board a 4 or below. That’s surprising, frankly, given that Larry Baer was suspended for three months just last year under the league’s domestic violence policy after a physical altercation with his wife was captured on cell phone video. It’s also surprising because Greg Johnson only recently took over as MLB’s control person and there’s almost nothing on which for Giants fans to base any opinions.

No matter whom the Giants hired to replace Bruce Bochy, that person would be … replacing Bruce Bochy. Skepticism was bound to be baked into this hire. Kapler arrived with a bread truck full of skepticism. There was his questionable handling of at least two instances of assault while he served as Dodgers farm director, there was his firing after two mediocre seasons in Philadelphia and there were the glaring managerial missteps he made in his first weeks on the job there. Among fans who have made up their minds on Kapler, more than twice as many believe that his hiring was a poor move. The good news: A majority of respondents are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Here we go. Giants fans might be optimistic by nature, but not irrationally so. If we assume that 5 equates to a .500 team, then 71.1 percent of respondents believe, on paper at least, that the Giants should expect to finish below .500 this season.

Given the level of confidence in Zaidi, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that 81.8 percent responded with a 6 or higher to this question. But it is surprising that there is such an even distribution at the upper end. Perhaps some devotion remains to a tried-and-true scouting method of evaluation. And perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise, either, since Brian Sabean can count three World Series rings on his fingers. We probably can surmise that most respondents understand that analytics are indispensable, but they also take a Goldilocks view toward blending hard science with the art of scouting and player evaluation.

A few readers mentioned in the comments below the survey that this was a difficult question to answer because Sabean and Evans are coupled as one entity to evaluate. It’s true, the Giants couldn’t keep the top spinning once Sabean yielded roster babysitting duties to the long-serving administrator who rose from a minor league entry-level job to become the general manager. But even the rough end to the Sabean/Evans regime couldn’t change the overall evaluation of the group that ended a five-decade championship drought and led three parades to the steps of City Hall over a five-year span. Sabean and Evans both served an ownership group that could be heavy-handed, and at times, dictated major personnel decisions that would cause seismic ripples. They were both good soldiers when they needed to be, and found ways to creatively add pieces that made an impact in the pennant race and beyond. With 73 percent grading them an 8 or above, it’s clear that their legacies are secure.

It’s one thing to demonstrate patience through a rebuilding process. It’s another to acknowledge that the rebuilding process was unavoidable. The Giants aren’t the Kansas City Royals or the A’s, who must constantly churn through players because they cannot afford to lock down every star that comes out of their minor-league system. Given the Giants’ revenue streams and financial strength over the past two decades, one could argue that there’s no reason they couldn’t have remained on par with the Dodgers in the NL West if they had continued drafting and developing players — or not tying up a quarter of a billion dollars in one offseason in Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. But the results here indicate a more permissive attitude toward the downturn that followed the 2016 NLDS loss to the Cubs.

This is a rebuilding process, and even though the Giants take great pains to avoid using that term, their fans obviously know a duck when they see one walking and quacking. Those fans apparently understand that rebuilding processes are seldom over in a year, too. That’s probably a good thing.

The ballpark experience remains impeccable, the games are readily available to watch in the Bay Area — and beyond that, you still get to listen to Kruk and Kuip and Jon and Flem. Giants fans know they have it good even when the team is in a downswing.

In the days before spring training ended and COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, I sat down with Buster Posey and he told me something that was truly eye-opening: He is resolved to be a Giant for life. He would sooner retire having worn one uniform than go elsewhere and hope to pad his stats for a couple of years. “I just value what I’ve been able to accomplish here. Not that going to another team would diminish what you did. But personally, as a fan, I like to see guys stay with the same team. So, no, I wouldn’t want to play anywhere else.” Clearly, the feelings are mutual. Posey might not rank as the most popular Giants player of all time — more on that in a bit — but he wins this question in a landslide. And considering that Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Crawford engender a lot of positive feelings, the margin of Posey’s lead here is pretty remarkable.

When you are the second-overall pick, people expect a lot from you. Joey Bart has name recognition and prospect evaluators consider him to have a relatively high floor. He will be catching in the big leagues soon, and he’ll probably enjoy a long career. But there’s still enough swing-and-miss there to cause some concern. He’s just as liable to be Mike Zunino as he is to be Lance Parrish. To my reckoning, “the most hope” goes hand in hand with the highest ceiling, and there’s little doubt that Marco Luciano has more upside than anyone in the Giants organization. More than a quarter of respondents agree with me.

A dramatic finish! This one went back and forth between Bonds and Tim Lincecum, with Barry prevailing by just eight votes. Lincecum might be the most endearing figure in recent Giants history, but respondents haven’t forgotten all those record-breaking home runs, all those flashbulbs popping and all of those MVP seasons. Lincecum changed the direction of the franchise. Without Bonds, there might not have been a franchise to help direct. A few more notable results: Willie Mays finished strongly in third place even though fewer than 20 percent of respondents can trace their Giants fandom prior to 1972; Will Clark received all 141 of his votes as a write-in candidate; and for as popular as Posey ranks among the current players, Bumgarner outpoints him here.

One way to answer this question is to examine the contracts and note that Evan Longoria is the only player signed to a guaranteed deal in 2022. So trading him would create the most long-term financial flexibility. But that is not how a majority of respondents approached this question. Perhaps they took a more practical approach, realizing that Jeff Samardzija could be a more likely trade candidate because he’s in the final year of his contract. But what about the 25.4 percent who advocate for a Brandon Belt trade? Are they all in the anti-Giraffe faction of the Belt Wars? Or do some of them want to free him from the hitting purgatory on the shores of McCovey Cove? Either way, the message is clear: there is little desire to move Posey and Crawford despite their declines, but Belt is viewed differently.

The results are clear: 68.2 percent of respondents aren’t red-assed about the Giants failing to re-sign their biggest red ass, rotation leader and legendary postseason hero. Given how much he’s meant to this franchise, I tend to think these results are pretty surprising. We’ll see how durable these fan attitudes will be when Bumgarner faces his former team for the first time.

It’s hard to know what to make of these results, given that many respondents are bound to be long-distance fans. If you’re in the small purple sliver here, you’ve no doubt undergone the painful withdrawal from garlic fries and Cha-Cha Bowls. And you can’t wait for your next fix.

Just a guess here: if we were to poll the 14.9 percent, then 90 percent of them would say they’ve popped down to take in a series at Petco Park. Even while the Giants have struggled in recent years, I never get on a flight to San Diego without a ton of black and orange on board.

More respondents can count themselves as past season-ticket holders than present season-ticket holders. Regardless, the entire process is undergoing a major change. Tickets aren’t being packaged, marketed and sold like they once were. All of the market research shows that younger consumers value flexibility and do not want to be locked into anything resembling an 81-game commitment.

On our podcast, Grant Brisbee and I went in totally different directions when we answered this question. That’s because Grant actually bothered to read the question. Can the Giants win within five years? Well, of course. Any team can win within five years. That is a long time no matter where an organization is in terms of its current talent wave. I sped through the question and thought it asked if I believe the Giants will win a World Series within five years. Well, of course I wouldn’t bet on that. Even the Dodgers, for all their superiority, haven’t won a World Series since 1988. (Did you know that? It’s true!) Grant patiently listened to my answer and he seemed to enjoy the part about the Dodgers not winning. Then he gently informed me that my reading comprehension sucks. As for these results? They’re all over the map. But they do tilt in a hopeful direction.

Good news for the Lunatic Fringe: Vladimir Guerrero is a free agent! Bad news: he’s 45 years old. The Giants didn’t win a World Series with Mays and Marichal and Bonds. But they did win a World Series with Cody Ross and Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell. So it makes sense that Giants fans understand that it’s way too simplistic to expect one superstar to ride in on a white horse. In fact, the Giants are damn lucky that Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper both told them, “Ehhh, thanks but no” when they tried to commit hundreds of millions of dollars to acquire them. Still, 39 percent is a pretty wide swath, and superstars do more than help you win. They keep you entertained.

The strict constructionists are a tiny minority here. Just 8.3 percent reject the redesigned bullpens and outfield dimensions. Although I cannot rule out the possibility that Belt might have logged in under dozens of different usernames to hit the like button to this question.

We debated whether to split this question into two because we suspected that Bonds would be the runaway winner. We wanted a better idea of how the rest of the field would compare with one another. Then we decided that we shouldn’t make assumptions, and if Bonds was the clear choice, that would be useful knowledge in its own right. Well, it sure looks like the Giants need to select a place amid those 24 palm trees for a statue of Willie Mays’ godson. As graceful and poetic as a Lincecum or Bumgarner statue might be (think of how the light hits that high-kicking Juan Marichal statue at the base of the Lefty O’Doul Bridge), Bruce Bochy finished solidly behind Bonds in the polling here. It might require some creative engineering to ensure the Bochy statue isn’t too top-heavy, though. Bronze isn’t exactly lightweight material. Credit to Tim Kawakami and Jimmy Durkin for creating the 2010-12-14 option, which was popular with respondents. How about that famous photo of Lincecum, his hair waving, as he’s held above the victory scrum in Texas? That would look pretty cool cast in bronze.

Obviously, you can’t root for the Giants right now. You can’t root for much of anything, except for the safety and health of our global community. If baseball can be played in 2020, then that is a hopeful sign that we are closer to universal testing, we are closer to a vaccine and we are closer to getting back to normal. Sure, a big part of us is resigned. A small part of us is angry. Perhaps we’ve also used this time to slow down, count our blessings and reconnect with those who bring the most joy to our lives. But mostly, we’re hopeful that better days are ahead. For the Giants. For everyone.

(Photo: Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images)

Andrew Baggarly is a senior writer for The Athletic and covers the San Francisco Giants. He has covered Major League Baseball for more than two decades, including the Giants since 2004 for the Oakland Tribune, San Jose Mercury News and Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. He is the author of two books that document the most successful era in franchise history: “A Band of Misfits: Tales of the 2010 San Francisco Giants” and “Giant Splash: Bondsian Blasts, World Series Parades and Other Thrilling Moments By the Bay.” Follow Andrew on Twitter @extrabaggs